Monday, February 3, 2014

Job Losses in Recessions – Historical Review




Yes, the economy only added 74,000 jobs in December 2013 and the cold weather was the reason. January had to be one of the coldest months ever for the deep South let alone the snow belt areas of the country. OK, maybe we will see improvements as the weather gets warmer but this blog post is not about weather or job gains or losses. 



In comparing the graphs, the “experts” continue to extend out the recovery. Please review each recession and you will notice that most are mild in comparison to the 2007 recession and most had fast recoveries – not so much today. 



I am focusing on the time frame between recessions which means that we went through the entire cycle:

1948
                        5 years
1953
                        4 years
1957
                        3 years
1960
                        9 years
1969
                        5 years
1974
                        6 years
1980
                        1 year
1981
                        9 years
1990
                        11 years
2001
                        6 years
2007
7 years and counting and NOT to optimism let alone euphoria!
So the critical questions are:
            Are we still in the depression area? or
            Are we in the cautiously optimistic area? or
            Are we still in the fear area and heading to another depressed area? or
            When will we be in the euphoria area?
??



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