Recession & Jobs

As I have indicated in the previous posts, I am currently assisting individuals in their Charlotte, North Carolina job search. Several of my contacts have given up and several have found quality jobs. I have reviewed resumes and offered suggestions. I have also conducted a mock interview to assist in preparing for a job interview. The following is a list of the professions which represents someone out of work:

Community TV and Radio
GIS Technician
Public Relations
Events Planning
Organizational Development
Recruiting
Nutritionist
IT Director
Marketing
Legal Assistant
Administrative Assistant
CPA - Auditing
Health Administration
Writing/Editing
Executive Non-profit
Large Scale Events
Human Resources
Office administrator
Consumer Service
Executive Assistant
Financing
Telecommunications
Mortgage Loan Officer
Property Management
Fleet Procurement
Chief Financial Officer
eCommerce
Civil Engineer
Professor Supply
Chain Management
Sales
Communications

This is only a snapshot of the professions affected by the recession. This recession is across multiple industries and professions, deep and lasting. What is troublesome to me is the following quote by President Barack Obama in his State of the Union Address:

“It’s time to get serious about fixing the problems that are hampering our growth”

As a lay person, I can take this statement several ways. In my opinion, JOBS have not been the focus in 2008 and 2009 and now it will be ---- will it be the top priority? Only time will tell. What I do know from past recessions, job creation – however it is accomplished does not happen overnight. Button down the hatches, it will be a summer of discontent.

To remain positive, this will be our year but we must reinvent, rebrand and recreate US and our business strategies/approaches. Start today and you will be ready for the upswing in the economy.

January 2010 Articles on Housing – source “The Business Insider”

http://bit.ly/bICRUI

If you agree that housing is the key to our recovery, please read the articles posted in January 2010 by The Business Insider. You be the judge as you analyze the charts and graphs. It has been my opinion that housing will lead the economy out of this recession. Unfortunately, housing is not in a recession, it is in a depression. More work to do this year. Consider rebranding, reinventing and recreating your business strategies this year.

The Reality and The Mindset

Articles worth reading to compare headline with content:

FDIC chief expects 2010 bank failures to exceed 2009 http://bit.ly/57gmFK
Read this article. Not so alarming as the headline might suggest that there is more bad news. Maybe or maybe not.
Wal-Mart to lay off 10,000 http://bit.ly/4LUUoT
The article is about Wal-Mart’s layoff of employees offering product sampling at Sam’s Club. Now, how do you react to the headline?

National home sales plummet to 40-year low http://bit.ly/7I3eoY
This article was ONLY for December! Remember, real estate in California will be the area to watch in coming months. The median price from 2008 to 2009 increased in California and across the nation. That is a good sign.
7 Tips to Regain Your Optimism – By Susan Mallery http://bit.ly/5x106V

Headlines should be kept in context as a marketing attempt for you to read the article. Newspaper sections compete for your readership. Personally, the comics and sports seem to be the best for me!

Understand the reality and establish a new mindset for 2010. This is our year!

Ten Cities to Go From Renting to Buying

Article by Francesca Levy, 1/21/10, Forbes.com

http://bit.ly/6njkg0

How do you get the message out to first time homebuyers is the question. We have the answer but the sense of urgency to buy is not there. I would guess that if interest rates started to rise which should be expected, first time homebuyers will act. Pass this article to your contact list. NOW is the best time to buy - still low interest rates, over supply, prices bouncing along the bottom and federal tax credits available - ONLY until April 2010.

If not now when? As a first time homebuyer or if you know a first time homebuyer, you owe it to yourself to at least investigate and then decide. Do not let inaction cause you to be a Monday morning quarterback and say "I should have contacted Dave for more information!!" Or contact any real estate agent to investigate your market for you or someone in your family or someone you know.

What is the worst that can happen - in my opinion, you investigate the market and decide not to buy.

Alarming article is a must Read

“Seven things about the economy that everyone should be more worried about”
an article written by Dan Froomkin
NiemanWatchdog.org (Nieman Foundation for Journalism at Harvard University)

http://bit.ly/6SJMVP

1. The middle class may never be the same again
2. The recovery could take a really long time
3. The recovery could be only temporary
4. Then What? This time, we don’t have the tools to get out of a recession
5. The very serious people in Washington are still obsessed with the deficit
6. Whatever is making the stock market go up could go away
7. The financial sector remains unchastened

The above seven topics were also published in the Charlotte Observer, January 24, 2010. I would suggest you read the above article before the State of the Union Address.

This is the last post in a series launching the Real Estate Development eAssociation on LinkedIn.

NOW THEREFORE the Real Estate Development eAssociation subgroups have open membership status requiring NO pre-approvals from the primary group owner. The subgroups will include but not limited to:

• News
• Publications
• Tools of the Trade & Trends
• Events
• Government Oversight
• International Networking
• Blogs

NOW THEREFORE when there is sufficient interest in joining the eAssociation and when twenty individuals and/or firms indicate their willingness to participate on the initial Board of Direction, this eAssociation will be launched with its own website. The Board of Direction will oversee the establishment of a reasonable membership fee and the development of a website.

Real Estate Development eAssociation Logo Design by Anna Kluttz.

The next step in forging alliances and growing the association is to promote within the social media forums. The goal is 2,010 members in 2010.

Real Estate Development eAssociation

NOW THEREFORE the initial Board of Direction will consist of twenty (20) individuals and/or firms participating in the structure, vision, and policies of the association.
The intent is to provide continuity in the infancy of the association which will ultimately be structured by the general membership seeking a common thread in the improvement of land for sustainability and profit.

NOW THEREFORE the Board of Direction will establish goals, objectives, initiatives, and the committee structure.

NOW THEREFORE the Real Estate Development eAssociation is forming on LinkedIn as a Group requiring approval to join. Joining the group on LinkedIn is for those seeking to invest their experience and effort on behalf of the real estate development industry.

Real Estate Development eAssociation

WHEREAS individual membership may include but not be limited to the following list of stakeholders:
• Builders
• Developers
• Land Owners
• Investors
• Lenders
• Surveyors
• Land Development Engineers
• Realtors®
• Architects
• Government Regulators (Local, Regional, State & Federal)
• Urban Planners
• Land Planners
• Real Estate Attorneys
• Soils Engineers
• Water and Wastewater Engineers
• Traffic Engineers
• Economists
• Marketing Professionals
• Environmental Specialists
• General Public
• Community Associations
• Academia
• Vendors
• Contractors
• Software Providers
• Recruiters

NOW THEREFORE the membership fee will be set at one affordable rate for all industry stakeholders joining the eAssociation. The eAssociation will be launched on LinkedIn and no membership fee is charged until voted on by the Board of Direction.

Real Estate Development eAssociation

WHEREAS the real estate development industry is fragmented by location which each area of the globe isolated unto itself as to how land should be improved;

WHEREAS market price points, product, use and demographics separate users of land from each other and rarely do we network or exchange new trends in sustainable real estate development practices;

WHEREAS the real estate development industry is not fully represented by any one trade organization which elevates land development as its primary focus;

WHEREAS the industry does not have a central organization acting as a clearinghouse for sustainable and profitable land development practices, information and policy positions;

WHEREAS agencies within all levels of government regulate land activities by imposing out dated and antiquated regulations, standards and criteria;

WHEREAS real estate development education is non-existent except for isolated graduate courses in real estate. The importance of teaching the tools of trade is essential to the sustainability of the industry.

WHEREAS each real estate development industry participant may become a member of this association as an individual and/or a firm and participate in activities, committees, and leadership roles as they wish. There will be only one level of membership.

The improvement of land for its intended use and governed by industry practices is formulated by individuals with ingenuity, creativity, and entrepreneurship.

This alliance of real estate development industry entities will focus on and guide the future of land development practices.

Buying, selling, designing, approving, permitting, and developing land for sustainability and profit are the threads binding land development into a global industry represented by members of the Real Estate Development eAssociation.

http://www.linkedin.com/ – go to groups, and type in “Real Estate Development eAssociation” – it is open access membership. You should consider getting on the ground floor of the industry association with real estate development as its primary focus.

LinkedIn Group – Land Development

The “Land Development” Group has grown to 1,218 members within the past year. Our members are from around the world and with diversified backgrounds. As a specialty professional networking group, the interaction with group members has been phenomenal.

It really was not all that long ago our networking opportunities consisted of attending seminars, meetings, and trade shows. Our ability to keep track of our connections was limited to a rolodex! Rapid technological change has opened the world to all of us. The following is from Joe Sheehan and I agree with his summation of social networking:

Spam talks, networks listen.
Spam asks what you can do for me; networks ask what I can do for you.
Spam promotes me, networks promote you.

I have challenge all members of the Land Development Group to invite their connections to join this group. You surely know someone you work with, client, or peer that can benefit from joining this forum of industry professionals. Invite one person to join and our group will quickly add to its networking opportunities! Next week I will post information on the new Real Estate Development eAssociation.
Visit my profile at www.LinkedIn.com/in/djohnsonpe

Political Video Worth Watching

http://bit.ly/6JxNGr

Draw your own conclusions.

Twitter Etiquette Guide

A Brief and Informal Twitter Etiquette Guide by Chris Brogan

http://bit.ly/9ikzJ

If you are not on Twitter, please read this article to gain a perspective on how to use this social networking tool to your advantage.

Share your thoughts on all of the following networking sites:

Twitter
Facebook
LinkedIn

Are there other sites which we should invest time and effort to understand and utilize?

New Print to Digital Applications

Two short videos to play and learn about a new technology that will transform print to digital. Think outside of the box and see if you can apply this new technology to your business or profession.

Stay ahead of technological changes.


Apple Tablet video

http://bit.ly/8iUwrQ


Course Smart Tablet Concept

http://bit.ly/8vt2hq

101 Ways to Help Find a Job

Go to the following link for an article listing things to consider when searching for new job opportunities.
If you have been searching for a new job, these tips are general in nature and should be used to generate new ways/thoughts/ideas on how to re-energize your job search. I am currently assisting over thirty individuals in their job search because there are too many applicants after too few jobs. It is important to have a “second pair of eyes” search for opportunities for your connections.

http://trcb.us/jobtips

The most important component in a search is to use LinkedIn, Twitter, and Facebook to forge networking opportunities with fellow professionals. LinkedIn has become a job posting source to review on a daily basis. In fact, there are jobs posted exclusively on LinkedIn and not on other job sites.

Charlotte, NC Housing Stats- 2009

In a previous post, I provided a chart comparing the housing recessions since the early ‘70’s. I find the national reporting to be problematic by comparing statistics from a time period from year to year and from the previous analysis period. This provides either a very false sense of hope or is a dramatic let down. Regional statistics can be conveyed to emphasis any viewpoint.

My suggestion is not to compare statistics since this recession is unique and can’t and should not be compared with any other recession. Thus, look for trends up or down which should guide you on real estate matters. My approach is to provide is to give you trends and interesting comparisons. These comparisons provide “food for thought” and not conclusions. The market activity data sources are the Charlotte MLS and Charlotte Realtor®.

Residential Closings

Over the past 7-months, the number of closings has been relatively constant at 2,000 closings per month. This would indicate stabilization in the demand. Which in my opinion, speculative buying has been moderated and with low interest rates, those wanting to buy are still on the fence. By the way, mortgage interest rates have come down since a June ’09 high in the mid 5% to about 4.7%.

Note: when interest rates head south, buyers wait for it to go lower. If you agree that interest rates have to start moving up in the first quarter 2010, then you will see fence sitters get into the market.

Residential Closing Price

I do not read too much into the average closing price statistic since the market is primarily lower priced homes. However, I do find the comparison from November 2009 to 2008 interesting.

Avg. Closing Price November 2008 $193,035
Avg. Closing Price November 2009 $195,244

The closing price chart illustrates ups and downs from month to month. In my opinion, I would conclude that we have hit bottom in prices and we are just bouncing along the bottom.

Supply

The Charlotte region’s supply of homes on the in November 2009 was over 23,000. Approximately 30% of the homes on the market are listed below $150,000. With an oversupply of homes on the market with a significant number of lower priced available, with the federal tax credit available for first time homebuyers and low interest rates, WHY have we not seen an increase in sales? Could it be job security? Could it be consumer confidence?
Or because we are looking only at a snapshot of statistics and the trend will be upward in sales and a decrease in inventory because:

1. The federal tax credit program was extended late last year and did not take hold during the holiday season. We will see a surge in buying this spring.
2. The holiday season is typically slow for real estate sales even in a good economy.
3. Companies in November and December typically freeze spending and put new hires on hold. Companies then start to implement their 2010 business plans and budgets in January - which may include an increase in head count.


Days on the Market (DOM)

From month to month the entire year, the days on the market varied only slightly from 112 to 116 days. This is a narrow band of time which should indicate some stability in the market. As a buyer, this is important in evaluating the sales price of a home. There are many factors that cause a house to sell quickly or stay on the market for a long time. The two most important considerations in using DOM to compare homes: (a) Price – the lower the price the better chance of selling and (b) there are not enough buyers to see the available inventory so buyers will gravitate to the homes priced to sell!

Bottom line: A house with characteristics better than the competition but priced lower than the competition will sell faster than the competition. Use this approach if you want to sell a house or if you are in the market to buy a house.

Other interesting statistics from the CMLS and the NAR Research Division:

· 45% of recent homebuyers were first-time buyers

· The typical home purchased in 2009 was 1,900 square feet & built in 1989

· 75% of the homebuyers purchased detached single family homes

· 88% of homebuyers used the internet to search for homes


Conclusions
Call an expert and they will be wrong about the economy and the housing industry. Everyone has an opinion – some good and some bad. You have to interpret the information to fit your situation. But since this is a forum to voice opinions – here is mine for 2010:

· The housing market will surge in the first quarter of 2010
· Interest rates will start to climb in the second quarter causing more buyers to enter the market

· Prices have stabilized and will start to increase as inflation sets in

· The housing industry will bounce along the bottom for the first half of 2010. For the second half, we are either in excellent shape as a country or we are in serious trouble – stay tuned for future guessing on my part – my crystal ball is in the shop.

10 Things to Know about Real Estate in 2010

10 Things to Know about Real Estate in 2010 - An article by Jake Mullins, US News and World Report, December 29, 2009

http://bit.ly/6DMwyL

This is a very good overview article and in my opinion there are three keys points that should be emphasized:

1. Housing Markets – without a question, the national trends may not be reflected in each local housing market. California has always been the bell weather state for national real estate trends but today – local markets will be affected by local events more than ever before. You need to become an expert on your local market trends and not use national statistics to guide your decisions.

2. Jobs – employment opportunities, business expansion, and job creation at the local level will be the driving force behind an upward trend in home buying – locally. Until there is a strong reversal in the unemployment rate, low local consumer confidence will curb home buying and keep inventories at a high level.

3. Mortgage Rates – this is extremely important to watch – nationally. There will be a delicate balance in raising interest rates and maintaining economic growth-even small steps. Mortgage rates will be increased and this will shut out some first time homebuyers at certain price points. Watch the Fed actions in early 2010.

The first quarter of 2010 will be the best time for a first time home buyer to buy a home. The stars are aligned! Do not pass up this opportunity in time. If your plans are to stay where you are for the foreseeable future, buy!

Positive November Housing Articles

November Housing Starts Article

http://bit.ly/77gW9t

Housing starts rose significantly in November. This is a good sign even with the first time homebuyer credit stimulus. Housing starts have always been a key leading indicator of the economy. If December is a positive gain, I would then think that the economy is starting to recover. The tax credit extension will have an artificial effect but a significant jump in housing starts during in the winter months and especially around the holidays is not typical. This may have everything to do with builders re-tooling their product line to be more competitive with the existing inventory and lower prices. When new homes are a viable alternative to the resale market, buyers will gravitate to new construction especially new homebuyers.



Home Buyer Confidence Article

http://bit.ly/51CUfc

A positive consumer outlook bodes well for the upcoming year in real estate. For many years, California has been the bell weather state for real estate trends, maybe in design but unfortunately in foreclosures as well. This article specifically cites the positive movement in Southern California. Watch the real estate trends in California closely during the first quarter of 2010 – the results will trickle to other markets in the second and third quarters. The pent up demand from new family formations and population growth will soon cause builders to ramp up their operations which in return create jobs, etc. etc. This is a good thing!

Happy New Year – it is our time in 2010!

Personally, I have and will always take personal responsibility over my actions and New Years Eve has always been a time for reflection but NOT this year. Last year is in the economic history books – let’s all move on. After listening to speeches and reading many articles to help me shape my plan for 2010, I intend to distinguish myself from my competition in everything that I will do by doing what I do differently and by:

Relentless Preparation – Rudy Giuliani gave a speech and included this trait as a key attribute of a leader. With relentless preparation, you will not be caught off guard from the unknown. You will be more comfortable with your actions due to your hard work and daily preparation. Relentless preparation in today’s technological world will result in the power of knowledge. Using social networking and developing connections in your professional field takes time, effort, preparation and creativity. We are still on the crest of this technological wave and the entire world is at our finger tips. Let’s not ignore this opportunity and embrace the tidal wave of change with relentless preparation.

Investing in Others – In our profession and daily lives, we should be assisting others and share our experience and expertise without expecting anything in return. This is a mentor and educator. Not only is this approach good for others, it is good for us.

Living in a State of Gratitude – Time is a precious commodity not traded on the stock exchange. 86,400 seconds in a day and 14,600 days in our work careers – how will you use this time? Most people do not reflect on time until it is too precious to lose. Why not change our outlook, our thinking, and our attitude by living in a state of gratitude – right now!

The above 2010 approach is a vast departure from my previous 37 years of business plans – most of which were centered on business. The answer is in others. It just seems to me that the technological change and its ease of use allows us access to people we would never, ever know about nor communicate with. Connect with people around the world, expand your sphere of influence, and use the above approaches to do what you do differently in 2010.

2010

REFLECTIONS FOR THE NEW YEAR
(From the writings of Harold Warbeirn)

Because the world is poor and starving,
Go with bread
Because the world is filled with fear,
Go with courage
Because the world is in despair,
Go with hope
Because the world is living lies,
Go with truth
Because the world is sick with sorrow,
Go with joy
Because the world is weary of wars,
Go with peace
Because the world is seldom fair,
Go with justice
Because the world is under judgment,
Go with mercy
Because the world will die without it,
Go with love.

This was a blog post by Mr. Pat Riley, President/COO of the Allen Tate Company. For me, the above says it all. In summary, let us all be positive in what we do and how we do it. A new year and a new decade should be welcomed since 2010 will be our year! Happy New Year!