2012 Recovery or Status
quo
2013 Stabilization or Improving
2014 Growth or Status
quo
Let’s
look at real estate for 2013:
•
Home prices climbed back quickly/strongly – 13.60%
in USA
Lack of supply will continue to drive prices
higher in 2014
•
5.1 million homes sold – highest total in 7 years -
10% increase over 2012’s final sales
Indicates economy is improving but slowly.
2014 will not show much difference.
•
435,000 new homes built – highest pace since 2008 –
a 5-year high
Positive spin but we need to build 1,200,000
NEW homes each year
The deficit is staggering over the past
5-yrs. This lack of supply will drive prices higher
•
3 million homes reached positive equity so only
14.5% of US homeowners in negative equity – down from 20% of US homeowners
being with negative equity
A good
sign that rising prices have a positive impact on families
•
55 of the US’s 100 largest markets have recovered
half of the equity they lost
Slow recovery for urban areas
•
Mortgage rates increased a full-point in 2013 but
didn’t slow down the recovery
This is the key component of the equation. In
the past, any interest rate increase caused the undecided to buy. The next bump
in interest rates will slow the recovery.
•
Re-finances disappeared, but mortgage loans process
still complex with new rules
It is a much more difficult and complex
process to obtain a mortgage.
Again, I am not overly optimistic about the overall
economy but very positive about the Charlotte market. There are markets that
will outperform the overall economy and in some markets, the only way to go is
up. 2014 will be like 2013 and going into 2015 will be a decline. This is the
last year of the best years to buy or sell a home.
Why? Interest rates, the Fed is out of tricks,
government policies, lack of jobs, national debt, and inflation will combine
into another slow decline of the economy. I hope I that I am wrong so I plan
for the worst and pray for the best.
No comments:
Post a Comment