The National Association of Home Builders survey on what the traditional single family house will transform into is of interest. I will compare the survey results with previous recessions and offer my opinions, as food for thought.
74% indicated single family homes will get smaller.
Without a doubt, new homes will become smaller primarily due to the decline of existing home prices in most markets. In addition, land has not declined in price. Thus, once the lot inventory of failed or distressed subdivisions has been exhausted, builders must reduce the square footage of the home to lower the price point.
In the ‘80’s, to generate sales we released 900 sq. ft. homes. Lot sizes remained the same.
In the ‘90’s, to generate sales we released 1,200 sq. ft. homes on 1-acre lots with existing infrastructure.
In both cases, homes sold and our production continued. Certainly not at a quick sales pace but it was sustainable. It would not be unreasonable to think that lots will get smaller, homes smaller with buyers seeking sustainable communities.
68% of respondents indicated homes will have “green” features.
This seems to be a high response for green features. In the ‘80’s, energy conservation was the top priority with many design approaches still in place today i.e. insulation, SEER ratings, etc. Any feature beyond the norm, I would consider a marketing ploy and the pay back longer than 7-yrs. The redesign of a smaller house will be the issue over the next several years.
29% indicated more Technology Features
This survey is much lower than what I would think. Technology is changing rapidly and homeowners will want their home to be managed with technology. If I had a choice on a priority between “green” and technology features, I would stay on the crest of the technology wave!
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