Housing - Pent-Up Demand & Lack of Supply -- Really?

I have shown the above graph in other forms but this illustration clearly shows the over building that happened during the real estate "bubble". It also clearly shows the lack of new housing construction required to meet demand. A demand caused the increase in population and family formations. Due to the economic conditions, less families are being formed and home buyers are delaying decisions. All of which results in a pent-up demand. I really thought it would be 2012 because a Presidential election cycle was enough of an incentive to make something happen with the economy.

The "experts" say the economy is improving but slowly. That is a good thing. However, we the people will not feel good about making a home buying decision until the 'fear' has been replaced with optimism. In my opinion, single family housing starts will remain below the 1,400,000 housing starts requirement to keep pace with the housing NEED through 2012 and well into 2013.

Knowing the construction cycle, financing, and sales -- follow this line of thought.
November 2012 - elections
Holiday and Winter months follow when construction is typically slow
Spring 2013 --- New optimism and Hope!
We start to buy!!!!!!!!!
Builders may be ready to build but spec building will still not be permitting by lenders -- thus a housing start will not occur until the loan is approved for the buyer and for the construction loan for the builder

• Construction will start in early summer 2013 - assuming the workforce is available and the builder has lots to build on.
• First closings will be in late summer 2013.
• Because of the lack of supply and the pent-up demand, prices will escalate rapidly.
• Interest rates will rise and monthly costs will increase.

Plan for the worst ( is this the worst case? ) I don't think so! Let's pray for the best and I think this is the best case scenario.
What are your thoughts?