2012

2012 will be a benchmark year that will define our own path to personal and professional freedom. We as individuals must take on our own responsibility and that of our family. Let’s make a difference in 2012. Stay true to your own goals but hopefully you will consider some of my goals as reasonable and attainable efforts that will guide you throughout the year.

Have strong Beliefs – know where you are going and where you are headed. It doesn’t matter where you have been – look forward and not back.

Be an Optimist – be a positive role model and find the good in everyone. Appreciate life everyday!

Relentless Preparation – answer the unanticipated, sense of calm with practice. Prepare for the worst and pray for the best.

Invest in Others – be a mentor - assist others without expecting anything in return. In 2011, I expanded my mentorship role and will build upon my willingness to assist others succeed in 2012.

Live in a State of Gratitude – 86,400 seconds in a day – how will you use this time?

Act rather than React – take action. Don’t wait for others to lead. We must lead and take care of others.

Reinvent Yourself by Doing what you Do and Always have Done ---------- Differently!

I listed the above goals for 2012 because this year is a tipping point for most of us. If you don’t approach this year differently, you may be left behind. Rely on yourself but also rely on those willing to share and to assist you succeed.

But most of all -------See through eyes of love and understanding.


Happy New Year!

2012 - A New Year

2012 – Happy New Year!



REFLECTIONS FOR THE NEW YEAR

(From the writings of Harold Warbeirn)

Because the world is poor and starving,
Go with bread

Because the world is filled with fear,
Go with courage

Because the world is in despair,
Go with hope

Because the world is living lies,
Go with truth

Because the world is sick with sorrow,
Go with joy

Because the world is weary of wars,
Go with peace

Because the world is seldom fair,
Go with justice

Because the world is under judgment,
Go with mercy

Because the world will die without it,
Go with love.

3rd Quarter GDP REPORT

2nd quarter 2009                     - 0.7%

3rd quarter 2009                       2.2%

4th quarter 2009                       5.6%


1st quarter 2010                      2.7%

2nd quarter 2010                     1.7%

3rd quarter 2010                      2.6%

4th quarter 2010                      3.1%


1st quarter 2011                      0.4%

2nd quarter 2011                     1.3%

3rd quarter 2011                     1.8%


4rd quarter 2011       Advance Estimate     1/27/12
                               Second Estimate        2/29/12
                               Third Estimate           3/29/12


As housing goes …. So goes the economy!

Did YOU Know?

With all of the discussion about the mortgage crisis and the goal of increasing home ownership over the past decade, did you know that the US ranks only 17th among developed countries? Did you know that Canada has a better ranking than the US?

OK. So what?

Did the miscalculation by the National Association of Realtors® of the homes sold per year since 2006 have any bearing on your buying or selling a home? Or did it clearly show that the economy is really worse off than reported?

Probably not; “experts used to be considered experts when they discussed their topic of interest more than 50 miles from their home! With the internet, there are NO experts!

OK. So what?

For 2012, you must consider finding a way to do things you have always have done – differently.

Do not rely on experts.
Do your own research.
Rely on you.
Rely on your gut.
Rely on your own instincts to succeed.

OK. So what?

2012 will be a better year than 2011. Start your planning today.

Charlotte Housing Starts

There was some good news this week about the increase in housing starts. I will do some research but I would guess that the majority of starts would be in multifamily housing starts --- rentals. This would generate work and thus jobs in the construction industry. Goods News.

What would you do?

Imagine if you had a packet of 100 flower seeds and 100 watering cans with just enough water in each can to soak each seed for one day each.

It seems as though you could do one or two things.

Plant all 100 seeds and water each seed one time and just hope that some make it,

or

You might want to plant 20 seeds and water each 5 times over the course of a week.

You and I as marketers hate to throw away perfectly good seeds don't we?

Will 2012 be a turning point or a tipping point
for the country?
for your community?
for your neighborhood?
for YOU?

Business Planning

Have you started to prepare your business plan for next year? It is time to get started!
What is your backlog going into 2012?
What is your primary goal for 2012?
How will you generate work in 2012?
It is time to set your expectations - start now and hit the ground running in 2012.

Home Prices Increasing???

Every local market is different and in many cases does not reflect the national statistics of price declines. In the small towns north of Charlotte, housing prices are on the increase. What about your market?

Peak of the Week

In 2011, there is a slight leveling off of housing prices in Miami and Charlotte. But both cities are back to 2002-2003 prices. As the foreclosures are processed through the market and jobs return, housing appreciation will again return slow but steady. Until.................2013 - 2014 when the seller's market returns and prices escalate dramatically. Prepare today for tomorrow.

The History of a HOME

This chart only reinforces the idea that over a long period of time, a home appreciates and adds to your wealth.
Why rent when you can buy?

Today will be a Perfect Day!

This was the view out my front door this morning. Early morning rainbowS --- if you look closely to the top left, there is a second rainbow. Believe!

What is the difference?

Do you need or want a job?

OR

Do you need or want work?

The Washington DC beltway politicians are again using unemployment numbers, rates and stories to gain political leverage with voters. It is interesting to me that the unemployment rate can decrease from 9.0 to 8.6% by creating only 140,000 new jobs. Yes, I know they are reporting that 310,000 people stopped looking for jobs and thus are no longer counted in the unemployment rate.

The drop in the unemployment rate is good but it doesn’t at all signify the economy is getting better. I think we need to focus on work rather than jobs!!

There is ONLY 64% participation in the labor force.

50% of all corporate profits are from overseas business – how will this work out in 2012?

There are jobs out there!
But very little work!

Let’s get ready to generate some work in 2012!

Statistics, Politics and Reality

As per the Bureau of Labor Statistics: (in thousands)

                                                Dec 2009                          Dec 2010                               Nov 2011

Civilian Labor Force                154,142                            153,889                                  153,683

Employed                                139,877                            139,064                                  140,070

Unemployment Rate                   9.3%                                9.8%                                       8.6%

Unemployed                             14,265                             14,825                                     12,613

Not in Labor Force                  81,659                              83,941                                    86,757

I am not a statistician but the reality from Dec 2009 to Nov 2011 seems to me:

1. the total civilian labor force is about the same
2. the number of employed people is about the same
3. the total number of the unemployed has decreased and thus the unemployment rate looks great or at least the trend is in the right direction,
4. the total number NOT in the labor force has increased by about 5,000,000 people. This is over a 6% increase over the past two years.

You have to be the judge on the trend of the economy.

Is the “spin” that the unemployment rate is trending down and that is a good sign the economy is improving?

OR

Is the ‘spin” that the number of people leaving the workforce is trending up because there is no work?

Peak of the Week

Welcome to the Peak of the Week -- a Wednesday when we look back at housing price trends and peek forward to what changes may be in store for housing prices. Remember, this is a national overview by the leading expert in tracking housing prices. Your local market may very well be different than the national trend and even different than your closest MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area).

The two graphs basically tell me that most of the experts have no clue what is going on TODAY let alone forcast into the future. In the past year (August 2010 - 2011), the starting price level dropped about $7,000 (jsut over 4% reduction in price) and the projected bottom has been exetended out 6 months. This seems consistent with everything that I have read on the housing price problem.

The leading expert in the field is projecting August 2011 price levels to be reached again in about 2-years!!
Until the economy recovers hand in hand with housing, you must prepare for the worst and pray for the best.

As I have said many times ----- AS Housing Goes.........SO Goes the Economy!
What does this mean to YOU?

Revisiting Congress

I posted the following on August 4, 2011:

Do You Know How Much Members of Congress Earn?


I guess there would be a debate on if they earn their salary but they do get paid!
In 1991, their annual salary was $101,900
In 2011, their annual salary is $174,000

In today’s Congress nearly 50% of all senators and representatives are MILLIONAIRES.

No wonder they are out of touch with US.
At a salary of $174,000 per year, they would be paid $14,500 per month.
In reviewing the congressional calendar for August – December, 2011, they will be in session 44 days.

$14,500 x 5 months = $72,500
$72,500 / 44 days = $1,647 per day
$1,647 / 8 hours = $205 per hour --- this is salary only and does not include benefits.

Some members in Congress are worth their salary and some are not. At least we have a chance to decide on who should stay and who should go by voting! Regardless, we should demand term limits.
 
Now we know how how congressmen obtain their wealth ---- "insider trading".
Illegal beyond the Capitol doors but legal for our elected officials.
Unethical beyond the Capitol doors but ethical within the halls of Congress.
 
WAKE UP AMERICA --- the double standard is with our elected officials.
Read --- "Throw Them All Out"

Consumer Confidence will Turn Around WHEN?

Our economy is based on 70% consumer spending. If the consumer lacks confidence, our economy will only limp along. As you know, many of the sectors of our economy are improving but the most important, housing, continues to be problematic. Certainly, the financial industry is approaching housing with a ten foot pole. The pendulum swings again. Lending is an important component of housing but in the marketplace FEAR is the overriding factor:

Fear of the buying process – not understanding how the system works


Fear of losing their job and/or the lack of job security

Fear of their ability to make monthly payments

Fear of being “house poor”

Fear of the daunting loan process

Fear of qualifying and credit scores

By combining consumer fear in housing with the total lack of consumer confidence and you have an economic problem. What do we need from the government to solve these problems?
Government policies? Government Regulations? or Leadership?
We need leadership to instill confidence in the American Dream -- we can do anything!

Housing - Pent-Up Demand & Lack of Supply -- Really?

I have shown the above graph in other forms but this illustration clearly shows the over building that happened during the real estate "bubble". It also clearly shows the lack of new housing construction required to meet demand. A demand caused the increase in population and family formations. Due to the economic conditions, less families are being formed and home buyers are delaying decisions. All of which results in a pent-up demand. I really thought it would be 2012 because a Presidential election cycle was enough of an incentive to make something happen with the economy.

The "experts" say the economy is improving but slowly. That is a good thing. However, we the people will not feel good about making a home buying decision until the 'fear' has been replaced with optimism. In my opinion, single family housing starts will remain below the 1,400,000 housing starts requirement to keep pace with the housing NEED through 2012 and well into 2013.

Knowing the construction cycle, financing, and sales -- follow this line of thought.
November 2012 - elections
Holiday and Winter months follow when construction is typically slow
Spring 2013 --- New optimism and Hope!
We start to buy!!!!!!!!!
Builders may be ready to build but spec building will still not be permitting by lenders -- thus a housing start will not occur until the loan is approved for the buyer and for the construction loan for the builder

• Construction will start in early summer 2013 - assuming the workforce is available and the builder has lots to build on.
• First closings will be in late summer 2013.
• Because of the lack of supply and the pent-up demand, prices will escalate rapidly.
• Interest rates will rise and monthly costs will increase.

Plan for the worst ( is this the worst case? ) I don't think so! Let's pray for the best and I think this is the best case scenario.
What are your thoughts?