Is a Double Dip in Housing Ahead?

This is the title of the article by Charlie Rose for Business week, April 12th issue. He interviewed economist Robert Shiller, The Arthur Okun Professor of Economics at Yale and co–founder of the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. I have provided excerpts from the article:

• He believes there is a 50-50 chance of a double dip recession
• We experienced price declines from 2006-2009
• 80-90% of the housing market is supported by government
• He thinks there should be another stimulus package
• Slight improvement in housing prices in January – he thinks this will be a trend up
• Housing starts are sluggish
• Delinquencies are up
• Foreclosures remain troubling
• Drop in existing home sales

Our economy is reported by “experts” and they are given a national forum to express their guess! They are generally wrong and the spin changes daily. Can anyone be wrong if they think something has a 50-50 chance of happening? The article did not make a case for or against a double dip housing recession. Unemployment and the lack of job creation were not mentioned at all. The upward trend of mortgage interest rates and its impact were not discussed in the article. So…… to have a double dip housing recession, the housing market has to have a sustainable upward trend before a second decline can occur. I have not seen any improvement in the housing market. Will we continue to bounce along the bottom and stay in this cycle for how long?……..ask an expert!!