Look for the Employment Numbers that are published on a monthly basis. Look at actual numbers of people hired not at the % - due to the number of people coming off unemployment. Forget about the unemployment rate. The percentage is relative to the data used.
What to look for in an improving economy:
- 180k-200k new jobs on a national level need to be added each month --- Remember that about 90,000 jobs per month have to be added just to keep up with population
- From the Bureau of Labor Statistics --- Since the beginning of the year (2012), job growth has averaged 146,000 per month, compared with an average gain of 153,000 in 2011. The trend is down.
- Since reaching an employment trough in February 2010, the private sector has added 4.7 million jobs!!!!!
Except the economy LOST 8,700,000 jobs from 12/07 – 2/10
- To put this number into perspective, divide 4,700,000 jobs added by 32 months = 146,875 jobs added per month (avg). This is below what is needed for an improving economy. I am not an economist --- do your own homework.
As you know, I believe as housing goes so goes the economy. So I want to relate each benchmark to housing – the best that I can.
- From the Bureau of Labor Statistics:
- Construction employment was essentially unchanged in September (+5,000) for the fourth consecutive month.
- Since February 2010, employment in the construction industry has shown essentially no net change. (this is a broad industry but would include housing construction).
Based on the above analysis, the economy is NOT improving and may very well be heading toward that fiscal cliff at the end of this year. If the politicians don’t do something, we will head into another recession if not something worse. Remember, many Americans are hanging on by their finger nails waiting for the economy to improve. If we head into another recession, we will be entering into a period of unsettling times.
Pray for the best and plan for the worst.
No comments:
Post a Comment