Friday, July 27, 2012

The Great Recession

I have posted the below graph in the past because the comparison of the 2007 recession to other recessions is stark and devastating. The most interesting comparison is between 2001 and 2007.

The 2007 recession seems to be a mirror image of the 2001 recession except for the depth of the recession. In 2001, this was a mild recession for housing. There was a lull in the market but picked up steam very quickly --- leading to the housing bubble. In every other recession, housing has been adjusted along with other elements of the economy.

In 2001, housing prices were not reset and continued to rise --- rapidly. The 2007 recovery seems to be on the same path as 2001 except for the magnitude of the unemployed. This graph does not illustrate the entire picture since it does not include those that have dropped out of the job market.

The problem is that the rest of the economy is not picking up but rather slowing down. The GDP advanced estimate for the second quarter will provide the trend. If the advance estimate is around 1.5%, we are not heading in the right direction.

Are you really better off than 1-year ago?

I have said it over and over again, As Housing Goes so Goes the Economy! This time, housing may be giving us a false sense of positive momentum. I sure hope I am wrong and te momentum is real and long term for us all!


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