Aging Population & Real Estate

Many boomers will retire “in-pace” while others will retire closer to family. The sunbelt migration of older retirees has seen a reversal over the past ten years. With the cost of health care for the elderly skyrocketing, new decisions on where to live, shop, work and play will be an important decision factor for finding a home but none are as important as family.

Assisted living facilities have waiting lists. The monthly costs are escalating every year. A simple one room apartment in an assisted living facility costs between $4,000 and $8,000 PER MONTH!

The large “active adult” community project will not be the panacea but a stepping stone in down-sizing. These communities will only be an acceptable choice if it is located close to a caring son or daughter.

During the 2000’s, families moved every four years. I believe the search for employment and the housing crisis will lengthen this period. Also, the children of baby boomers will not be moving as much. They are more locked into their home and employment and will not be taking risks. This generation is experiencing their first difficult recession and their outlook on the future will change. Add a retiring or elderly parent to the equation and their real estate goals change. Then add children to the equation and all of a sudden the length of stay in a home will be longer and longer. In the ‘80’s the average time for a family to relocate was every 7-years.

Again accepting a home as a place for family, faith and freedom, we will be less likely to move and this alone with change the dynamics of the housing industry. A home has never been about earning a profit on a financial investment.

Baby boomers will have a dramatic impact on the real estate industry. By retiring in place, new housing starts will be adjusted downward establishing a new norm. Paying of the mortgage will become common and the home value passed along to their heirs.

The ramifications would be that buyers will be faced with rising prices, rising interest rates and diminishing number of homes to choose from. In my opinion, a seller’s market has returned and will be with us for years to come.

The aging population will affect new home construction starts and thus the supply will be readjusted to a new norm. Family formations are down and generational houses may be the new trend – for years to come. New home designs will target the aging population by at least keeping the MBR on the main floor, minimum 3-BR’s for family visits and a 2-car garage. However, plenty of storage will be the key amenity in a home for the boomers.

 

The baby boomers will have a significant impact on the real estate industry.....if we listen!

Home Sales UP; Inventory DOWN; What will Happen Next?

If the Fed thinks inflation is under control (which they don't shop where we shop) and the economy is improving, they will taper off their credit card buying and interest rates will rise and the housing recovery will slow down. Can the Fed pull off a gradual adjustment to ease the housing market into a sustainable growth pattern? I don't think so because of the lack of supply and the pent-up demand.
Your opinions are welcome!

Housing Prices "Today vs Bubble"

So ....... why do you think the home prices in Dallas remained steady during the bubble and now only a moderate increase compared to other cities. I don't know for sure but my initial thought is LAND -- plenty of it, regulatory common sense and builders not escalating prices during the bubble just because they could. Also probably staying away from mortgage programs that damaged other markets. Could be a pro-business environment or lower unemployment rate than the national rate over the past decade. Not sure but I am hanging my hat on LAND! Plenty of it and at a reasonable price. How would you like to live in Las Vegas where homes lost 1/2 their value!

I find it interesting to note that the bubble was essentially over a 3-year period. How long will it take to get back the value in most states ----- another 3-years? Mortgage games and the lack of work compounded the decline of housing prices in most states but not Texas.

Over- the- top comment

I have posted over 800 blog posts on real estate, land development and social networking. Sometimes my opinions stir serious debates, lively discussions and thoughtful comments. However, very rarely have I received an over- the- top comment. The following comment is from someone that graduated in 2007 and has had 10 non-profit jobs since 2007:

“You know on the flip it really doesn't take much expertise, perseverance, financial stamina and political perception at all to screw up perfectly nice wetlands, special habitats or local communities.

Ah, if days were like they used to be when we could pillage behind the shield of individual property rights without having to be much concerned about the effects on our environments, friends and neighbors.

David, what you've partaken in here is known as blog-spamming, i.e. the shameless self-promotion of one's personal writings without thinking as to whether it can materially advance the discussions of the group.

Your writing has no focus, just a generalized theme of anti-government backed by what you think is a damning listing of supporting evidence

 but which is, in fact, a droll, repetitious vomiting of knowledge we already all contain

            and frankly didn't need shouted at us.

You write like a telemarketer with such a blissless ignorance of typography with your multitude of screaming font-sizes that my eyeballs are cracked and near bleeding.

This is the Sustainable Land Development group - I'm more than happy to discuss sustainable development solutions that include less government as is everyone here I'm sure.

Your post had not a single thought towards sustainability, in fact it was frequently negative in reaction to it.

This is a professional group for professional discussions about sustainability, not a place for bleating off-topic diatribes.

I'll be happy to engage you on topics of sustainable land development for the future.”

I sent him the following message and still no response or discussion contribution from this professional.

“I would encourage you to add your thoughts and comments to my discussion posted in this group over 28 days ago - What is your definition of a sustainable Local Community?”

I would like to highlight several of his comments which are from a different thought process than most:

we could pillage behind the shield of individual property rights without having to be much concerned about the effects on our environments, friends and neighbors  

This comment bothers me the most.

The following personal attacks are meaningless to me.

Your writing has no focus

in fact, a droll, repetitious vomiting of knowledge we already all contain and frankly didn't need shouted at us.

a blissless ignorance of typography with your multitude of screaming font-sizes

This is a professional group for professional discussions about sustainability, not a place for bleating off-topic diatribes.

I do not know this person nor are we connected on LinkedIn.

Everyone is entitled to their opinions but that must only be the case when “they” agree with you. Otherwise, it is a personal attack! Where else do we see this approach?

The interesting aspect of LinkedIn discussion posts is the limited space for a discussion. I typically keep the discussion short and provide a link to my blog. This way only those interested in the subject will click on the link for more information.

This person used the link to my blog and must of read my post and then responded the way he responded. I have posted over 800 blog posts and admit, I am not a writer!

Can you imagine if you are in the national spotlight and how these personal attacks must come at you on a daily if not an hourly basis?

I know this person must be angry. His utopia after graduating in 2007 was not and still isn’t what he visualized. And by the way, we will not return to his utopia. We are at the beginning of a new norm which if not reversed over the next couple of years, this norm will be irreversible.  

We have lost our own way. God bless him and may God bless us all.