GDP REPORT

2nd quarter 2009                         - 0.7%
3rd quarter 2009                           2.2%
4th quarter 2009                            5.6%

1st quarter 2010                            2.7%
2nd quarter 2010                           1.7%
3rd quarter 2010                           2.6%
4th quarter 2010                            3.1%

1st quarter 2011                            0.4%
2nd quarter 2011                           1.3%
3rd quarter 2011                           1.8%
4th quarter 2011                            3.0%

1st Quarter 2012                           1.9%

2nd quarter 2012              Advance Estimate                   1.5%
                                          Second Estimate                     1.7%
                                          Third Estimate (9/27)

Forget about 4-yrs ago, are you better off today than you were in the past 2-yrs? Are your finger nails from holding on getting worn out? Wake Up America!

As housing goes …. So goes the economy!

Home Sales & Lack of Inventory

This graph is from NAR. The invnetory has not improved and as of August 2012, the Charlotte market is experiencing multiple offers!! Now that we are going into the slow period for housing, what will we expect?
In my opinion, the real estate market is waiting for the results of the Presidential election. Just like everyone else. Sellers which have their house on the market and priced correctly will sell quickly if.............is elected!

Where were you on July 16, 1969?

On July 16, 1969, I was ready to go to my night job at Acme’s food distribution center for the night shift. I decided to be late for work so I could watch Neil Armstrong walk on the moon. There are certain events in our lives that we will never forget. I remember these words very clearly:


"Houston, Tranquillity Base here. The Eagle has landed."

"That's one small step for man, one giant leap for mankind."

About a decade later, I had the privilege of attending an event that Neil Armstrong gave a speech and I remember the following:

"It suddenly struck me that that tiny pea, pretty and blue, was the Earth. I put up my thumb and shut one eye, and my thumb blotted out the planet Earth. I didn't feel like a giant. I felt very, very small."

Neil Armstrong is a true hero, explorer and risk taker. Neil Armstrong is someone to admire and remember as a true American leader.

I was curious to know where our current President was on July 16, 1969.

Where was Barack Obama on July 16, 1969??

Source: http://www.barack-obama-timeline.com

1967
Ann Dunham marries Lolo Soetoro. When Barack Obama, Jr., is 6 years old, the family moves to Jakarta, Indonesia, Lolo's hometown. In Indonesia Barack Obama becomes familiar with poverty, beggars, and children dying from illnesses. The house they live in has no stable electricity and the streets in their neighborhood are not paved. Ann gets a job as an English teacher at the American embassy. Barack Obama Jr. attends Franciscus Assisi Primary School, which is a Catholic school.

1969
Lolo Seotoro, Barack Obama's stepfather, is promoted in the American oil company he works for, and he relocates the family to a better neighborhood. Consequently, Barack Obama leaves the Catholic school and attends a public school closer to the family's new residence.

1970
Barack Obama's half sister Maya Soetoro is born. However, Ann Dunham's second marriage begins to disintegrate. She misses her home in the U.S. and wants her children to grow and be educated there.

1971
When Barack Obama is 10, his mother sends him back to Hawaii, to live with his white grandparents in their two bedroom apartment

Barack Hussein Obama, Jr. was in Indonesia on July 16, 1969. As a seven year old, was he inspired by Neil Armstrong’s leadership and courage? Do you think he even knew that an American explorer actually walked on the moon?

“Looking back, we were really very privileged to live in that thin slice of history where we changed how man looks at himself, and what he might become, and where he might go” Neil Armstrong, 2001 NASA oral history project. 

This quote seems as valid today.

Homebuilder Confidence in U.S. Increases to Five-Year High

By Shobhana Chandra - Aug 15, 2012 10:10 AM ET

http://www.bloomberg.com

I have provided a short excerpt from the article to give you an optimistic look at the housing industry.

Confidence among U.S. homebuilders climbed in August to the highest level in more than five years, affirming the improvement in residential construction.

The National Association of Home Builders/Wells Fargo builder confidence index rose to 37, higher than projected and the best showing since February 2007, according to figures from the Washington-based group released today. The median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for no change from July’s 35. Readings below 50 mean more respondents said conditions were poor.

Estimates for the builder sentiment index of 46 economists in the Bloomberg survey ranged from 31 to 38. The gauge, which was first published in January 1985, averaged 54 in the five years leading to the recession that started in December 2007. It reached a record low of 8 in January 2009.

5 Biggest Mistakes Home Buyers Make

Daily Real Estate News
Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Some home buyers fall for common pitfalls when purchasing a home. How can you help make sure your clients don’t fall for one?

Credit.com recently featured some of the biggest mistakes home buyers often make. Their list included:

1. Trying to fix credit scores before buying a home.

Home buyers may do more harm than good if they don’t consult a financial expert first. “Even paying down credit card balances, which is a good thing as far as your credit scores and debt ratios are concerned, could be a problem if it leaves you short the cash you need to qualify to get the loan,” says Gerri Detweiler, Credit.com’s personal finance expert.

2. Not considering the future enough in their purchase.

Buyers should consider what they want out of a house not just for today but also five or 10 years down the road. Do they plan to expand their family? If so, they may need a bigger home and want a different location. Also, how long do they plan on staying at the home? That can help determine the type of mortgage that makes the most sense for them too.

3. Failing to research financing enough.

First comes the home and then the financing? Not in today’s market. Home shoppers should get prequalified for a mortgage before they start shopping for a home so they know what they can afford. “The time to make decisions about your mortgage needs is not during this 10-day window [after you sign a contract]; at most, this is time to shop for rates and fees and such,” says Keith Gumbinger, vice president of HSH.com. “Evaluating your credit, deciding on a product you prefer, how much down payment you feel comfortable making, whether you want to pay fees or points [and, if so, how much] and even shopping for a lender [getting preapproved] should happen well in advance of even wandering through the market looking at houses.”

4. Making the assumption that the Good Faith Estimate is always what you pay at closing.

The form lenders provide that estimates closing costs is not set in stone. Closing costs may actually be more, so buyers need to be prepared. Closing costs generally are about 3 percent to 5 percent of the loan amount. “Shop around and compare the Good Faith Estimate provided by the lender with that of two or three other lenders,” suggests Ryan Himmel, a CPA and founder of BIDaWIZ, a tax advice resource. “If there is a significant disparity in estimates, then request an explanation from the lender to determine if you would like to move forward.”

5. Failing to budget for home expenses.

Budgeting to purchase the home isn’t all new home owners should be squeezing in their budget. They’d be wise to not forget to budget for maintaining the home too. New home owners should budget for an increase in utility bills as well as for future maintenance and repair costs, such as repairing a furnace or roof.

Worth Watching



Housing Supply & Demand

The following estimate represents the annual demand for new housing units (in millions)
Source: Credit Suisse, March 9, 2012

Household formations                            1.31
Net Removal of housing units                 0.26
Trend growth of vacant units                  0.05
Placements of mobile homes                (0.14)
Units started but not completed             0.06

Required ANNUAL number of housing starts              1,540,000*

* I have been using 1,200,000 annual housing starts as the benchmark for a thriving economy.

From the above demand analysis, household formations are the key factor. I am providing the following graph to illustrate the lack of housing formations over the past several years.

New Housing Starts

                                       Housing Units(x000)

2006                                       1,649

2007                                       1,037

2008                                         560

2009                                         581

2010                                         539

2011                                        697

Conclusion: the demand is there and will surface with dramatic consequences. The supply is not available and new homes construction will take awhile to ramp up production. We are also entering the last few months of production before winter in most

Commercial Real Estate Status

Commercial projects typically require significant financial resources. Banks have been reluctant to lend for commercial projects. When will this change-----when the economy changes and confidence is restored. Multifamily activity has been strong fueled by low housing starts, lack of housing formations and foreclosures.

Source: Commercial Connections, Q2, 2012

Multifamily                                                  2011                    2012                   2013

Vacancy                                                     5.2%                    4.4%                   4.3%

Completions                                            37,678                  82,492                156,643

Rent                                                         +2.2%                  +4.0%                  +4.1%

The number of completed units in 2013 is a result of 2012 starts reflecting strong demand. Until the economy recovers, renting will be the ONLY choice for many families/individuals because of bad credit. If you have good credit, buying a home/TH/condo today will fix your monthly cost and it will be less expensive than renting. It is time to buy with interest rates remaining at a historic low!

Office buildings – vacancies are down slightly and rents are up 2.0%

Industrial buildings ---- vacancies are down and completions are up considerably. Rents are moving into a positive trend up

Retail buildings ---vacancies are decreasing and completions are expected to be significant in 2013 and rents will begin to increase as well.

The commercial sector of real estate development is showing signs of life! As you know, the commercial sector follows demographics and roof tops. This is good news.

Can we sustain the momentum?

Local Regulations

The number and extent of federal regulations are at historic levels. Local and city regulations are following the same trends. Can you imagine living in NY City? The housing industry has been decimated over the past three years and it will take years before the industry as a whole will rebound. However, this doesn't stop local government from generating new ways to control development. Sustainable development has several definitions but in essence, use existing infrastructure and increase densities. In Seattle, developers can achieve sustainability by buying the development rights of landowners in outlining areas. Land taken off the market will only restrict the supply and drive costs up. What is happening in your community?

Source: Seattle Department of Planning and Development

The city of Seattle wants to use a 2011 state law that lets developers build bigger buildings provided that they buy the development rights for nearby farms and forests. The program would apply to downtown Seattle, with the draft boundary marked by the solid red line on the map.

2012 - WHO do you Trust?

Open Houses

In case you didn’t read this recent Charlotte Observer article about drugs being stolen during Open Houses, I wanted to pass along the “bottom line”:


CHARLOTTE, NC - The things to hide if you’re selling your home that you might not think about. Forget about just the jewelry and prized possessions. Make sure you lock up the medicine cabinet.

Drug addicts can be resourceful individuals. During an open house, they know exactly where to go to find pharmaceuticals. Most homeowners keep their medicines in a bathroom cabinet or drawer. So often, its find, grab, and go.

To protect against this type of crime, both Williams and Odell advice you lock the medicines away, just like money. Or, the best place you can have prescriptions is out of the house, place in a box, and take them with you when you leave.

17 unspoken rules of LinkedIn etiquette.

Source: LinkedIn Staff Writers

On most social media networks, it seems like anything goes. Things are a little more loose on Facebook and Twitter, but LinkedIn is strictly professional, giving it a different kind of status when it comes to etiquette. You have to be careful about what you put out there, how you make your requests, and remember to be polite. Are you stepping on toes without realizing your mistakes? Read on to learn about 17 unspoken rules of LinkedIn etiquette.

1. Only do what you’d be comfortable doing in person:
On the LinkedIn Blog, Lindsey Pollak shares a priceless gem: “If you wouldn’t do it in person, don’t do it on LinkedIn!” This is a good rule to keep in mind even if you can’t remember lots of little rules. Be polite, professional, and don’t let your manners go out the window just because you’re online.

2. Be personal:
When connecting with strangers on LinkedIn, it’s easy just to send the default message, but it’s much more polite and friendly to create a personal message. It doesn’t have to be an essay, but you should share a quick note about why you’d like to connect with that person, instead of sending an impersonal request.

3. Mind your Ps and Qs:
Please and thank you don’t take much time to say, but it’s amazing how many people forget about these polite words online. Make your etiquette stand out and offer a please any time you ask for something, and a thank you any time someone does a nice thing for you.

4. Don’t cause a traffic jam:
Status updates are always welcome, but if you’re posting more than 10 updates before your connections have had a chance to sip their coffee, you need to slow it down. Three updates within a short period of time is enough; if you have more consider spreading them out throughout the day to avoid a traffic jam.

5. Give recommendations:
What goes around comes around. If you would like to get recommendations on LinkedIn, don’t forget to share your own, too. People like being recommended, at it’s great for building your social capital. Write a good recommendation; hopefully you’ll get one, too.

6. Ask for recommendations strategically:
If you’re going to request recommendations, don’t send them out to everyone you know. Think about who, specifically, can share valuable insight. When requesting your recommendation, ask for recommendations on specific projects or work history that you know they’ll have something to say about. It helps them come up with something easy to say, and lets them know that their recommendation is important enough to you that you’ll make it personal.

7. Keep it professional:
Remember that LinkedIn is a professional site, not a personal one. Vacation pictures, whining, and drama are not appreciated. Stay professional, offering business discussions, events, and opportunities instead.

8. Avoid making it all about you:
It’s great to share what’s important to you on LinkedIn, but be careful not to get too full of yourself. Remember that LinkedIn is all about connections and nurturing your network. Ask yourself what you can do for your contacts, instead of frequently requesting that they do things that only benefit you.

9. Don’t add connections willy-nilly:
It’s fun and useful to have a large network, but add too many strangers, and you’ll devalue the real connections you have. Plus, it’s unnerving for people on the other side of the request: they have to decide whether they’d like to accept an invitation from a stranger or not. Play it safe; only add people that you really have a connection with, whether you’ve met them in person or conversed online.

10. Make it easy for people to remember you:
If you are going to connect with someone that you aren’t very close to, help them remember who you are. Remind them how they know you, mentioning that it was great running into them at a conference, chatting on a podcast, or however else you met that person.

11. Take a real photo:
Be sure to keep your LinkedIn profile photo appropriate for business. Photos from the beach, images from your favorite sports team, or ones without you in them at all are not really appropriate. Take the time to get a professional photo, or just get a friend to snap a nice one of you. It will help you put out the right impression.

12. Don’t be spammy:
This one should be obvious, but judging by the amount of spam that still plagues LinkedIn, some people still need reminding. When posting press releases and other marketing materials consider whether your posts are really relevant to a group or your LinkedIn followers, and whether or not you’ve already shared this information before. People don’t like to see irrelevant information, or the same thing over and over again. And it should go without saying, but sales pitches aren’t welcome.

13. Avoid getting into fights:
Again, this one’s obvious, but worth a mention. Be careful not to get into spats in open forums, or at all. It looks bad to fight publicly, and it feels bad even to do it in private. Do your best to smooth things over and keep LinkedIn a positive place to connect.

14. Keep Twitter on Twitter:
A common LinkedIn etiquette complaint is about users with constant status updates, and those that link their Twitter accounts with LinkedIn. Chances are, your professional contacts do not care to hear ultra-frequent updates, and your Twitter account may not be 100% professional. Sure, it’s tempting to save time, but it’s much more polite to craft specific messages for LinkedIn, and keep them to a polite volume.

15. Be patient with the new guy:
You may be a LinkedIn pro, but new users are still jumping on every day, and they don’t necessarily know what they’re doing. As they try to figure out how best to use LinkedIn, be patient and kind, and even offer to lend them a hand.

16. Know and follow group rules:
When you join a LinkedIn group, be careful to find the rules and follow them. You’ll be able to avoid awkward emails from group owners and embarrassingly getting called out as a rule breaker.

17. Write back, no matter what:
If someone contacts you, acknowledge the message. Even if you don’t have a real response for their question or request, it’s still polite to write back. Ignored messages hurt, and every connection merits a response. If you’re too busy to take care of it at the moment, just say so. Chances are, your connection will understand.

Buying is more Affordable that Renting

The "perfect storm" of opportunity for first time homebuyers is slowly closing.

The perfect storm:      lowest home prices

                                 lowest interest rates

                                 over supply of homes on the market. 

Home prices have leveled off and in many markets starting to rise. Interest rates are hovering at historic lows and will probably remain until the economy is gaining steam. If you see interest rates starting to move higher --- BUY! Inventory again is the problem for buyers. The lack of choice requires buyers to make concessions on features or location. Homebuyers must also act rather than continue to look. If they procrastenate, the home may no longer be available. Please forward this post to your contacts.   

A Changing Housing Market

In Charlotte, we are seeing multiple offers in ALL price points. The lack of supply is driving the prices. However, I am starting to see more For Sale signs up. The market may become more balanced. I still think this is just a spike in the market and the economy will drag housing back down. I have stated that prices would rise dramatically and not gradually due to positive economic activity. After all,  new housing starts have been down about 70% each of the past 4 years. This lack of supply is causing the immediate spike in prices. It is NOT demand that is driving prices but the lack of supply.

5 Biggest Mistakes Home Buyers Make

Daily Real Estate News
Wednesday, June 20, 2012

Some home buyers fall for common pitfalls when purchasing a home. How can you help make sure your clients don’t fall for one?

Credit.com recently featured some of the biggest mistakes home buyers often make. Their list included:

1. Trying to fix credit scores before buying a home.

Home buyers may do more harm than good if they don’t consult a financial expert first. “Even paying down credit card balances, which is a good thing as far as your credit scores and debt ratios are concerned, could be a problem if it leaves you short the cash you need to qualify to get the loan,” says Gerri Detweiler, Credit.com’s personal finance expert.

2. Not considering the future enough in their purchase.

Buyers should consider what they want out of a house not just for today but also five or 10 years down the road. Do they plan to expand their family? If so, they may need a bigger home and want a different location. Also, how long do they plan on staying at the home? That can help determine the type of mortgage that makes the most sense for them too.

3. Failing to research financing enough.

First comes the home and then the financing? Not in today’s market. Home shoppers should get prequalified for a mortgage before they start shopping for a home so they know what they can afford. “The time to make decisions about your mortgage needs is not during this 10-day window [after you sign a contract]; at most, this is time to shop for rates and fees and such,” says Keith Gumbinger, vice president of HSH.com. “Evaluating your credit, deciding on a product you prefer, how much down payment you feel comfortable making, whether you want to pay fees or points [and, if so, how much] and even shopping for a lender [getting preapproved] should happen well in advance of even wandering through the market looking at houses.”

4. Making the assumption that the Good Faith Estimate is always what you pay at closing.

The form lenders provide that estimates closing costs is not set in stone. Closing costs may actually be more, so buyers need to be prepared. Closing costs generally are about 3 percent to 5 percent of the loan amount. “Shop around and compare the Good Faith Estimate provided by the lender with that of two or three other lenders,” suggests Ryan Himmel, a CPA and founder of BIDaWIZ, a tax advice resource. “If there is a significant disparity in estimates, then request an explanation from the lender to determine if you would like to move forward.”

5. Failing to budget for home expenses.

Budgeting to purchase the home isn’t all new home owners should be squeezing in their budget. They’d be wise to not forget to budget for maintaining the home too. New home owners should budget for an increase in utility bills as well as for future maintenance and repair costs, such as repairing a furnace or roof.

  

The loss of Realtors does not show up in national or even local statistics because agents are sole proprietors. In Charlotte alone, over 22% of the agents have left the industry since 2009. The national unemployment rate does not include those who have left the workforce OR sole proprietors. Remember most sole proprietors are looking for work to survive. The economy is not creating the environment for work to be created. As a sole proprietor, I am looking for work -- where will it come from next???