Monday, January 31, 2011

GDP

2nd quarter 2009                                             - 0.7%

3rd quarter 2009                                                2.2%

4th quarter 2009                                                 5.6%

1st quarter 2010                                                 2.7%

2nd quarter 2010                                                1.7%

3rd quarter 2010                                                 2.6%

Release dates in 2011 Gross Domestic Product - 4th quarter 2010

Advance Estimate January 28                               3.2%

Second Estimate February 25

Third Estimate March 25

Friday, January 28, 2011

Housing & the Economy

“As Housing Goes – So Goes the Economy”

This cycle has not been broken and will not be broken until jobs are created!


Thursday, January 27, 2011

Baby Boomers & Social Security

There were 76,000,000 “baby boomers’ born during the period from 1946 to 1964.

If they start to retire this year, there will be approximately 10,000 new people PER DAY added to social security. Maybe they will postpone retirement a few years because the Great Recession has eroded their retirement funds.

It will be interesting to follow the baby boomers and their retirement decisions. Some will take social security early at age 62 because the funds are available now (really?) and some will postpone retirement by working longer. Their decisions will dramatically affect the social security system.

Facts:

The Treasury Department reveals that the Social Security program outlays exceed payroll tax revenues by $76 billion in 2010. The program is in the red!

The Social Security Administration Trustees over estimated the revenue by $50,000,000.

Social Security Program income was $807 billion in 2009

Social Security Program income was $741 billion in 2010
A trend??

The Social Security Administration Trustees reported the following:

"Social Security expenditures are expected to exceed tax receipts this year for the first time since 1983.
The projected deficit of $41 billion this year (excluding interest income) is attributable to the recession.
This deficit is expected to shrink substantially for 2011 and to return to small surpluses for years 2012-2014 due to the improving economy.
After 2014 deficits are expected to grow rapidly as the baby boom generation's retirement causes the number of beneficiaries to grow substantially more rapidly than the number of covered workers.
The annual deficits will be made up by redeeming trust fund assets in amounts less than interest earnings through 2024, and then by redeeming trust fund assets until reserves are exhausted in 2037."

During the years Social Security had a surplus, the Social Security Administration “loaned” the Treasury the money. The Treasury now will have to pay back the Social Security program because the program must make up the deficit between revenues and costs.

Treasury borrowed money to pay Social Security benefits in 15 out of the last 25 months. This will add to our deficit every year!

We are still at a 9.4% unemployment rate and much higher by including the under employed and sole proprietors + small business with no employees (making less during the Great Recession). How can the Social Security deficit “shrink substantially” in 2011 with less workers paying into the system????

Baby Boomers – take your money now and become “vested” or wait and receive a higher monthly payment?

If you and your spouse started to receive social security benefits at age 62 instead of 66, you would be receiving 75% of the total benefit and your spouse 35% of the total monthly benefit if you retire at age 66.

And, that is assuming government officials can even be close to being correct on their revenue/cost projections for the program. Remember, government experts are most always wrong!!

Congress – time to step to the plate and be leaders - do something.

Wednesday, January 26, 2011

First-Time Buyers: What Research Tells Us

Source: National Association of Realtors®

In 2009, first-time buyers comprised an unprecedented 47 percent of the market, most likely due to the federal tax credit and historic affordability, according to the National Association of Realtors®’ 2009 Profile of Home Buyers and Sellers. And housing economists predict that 2010 will be an even bigger year for first-timers.

Who are these people, and what do they want?

Most are married. Forty-nine percent are a married couple. Single females comprise a quarter of first-time buyers, and single males account for just 12 percent.

They’re young. More than half—53 percent—are between the ages of 24 and 34. And 12 percent are younger than 24.

They’re diverse. Twenty-two percent are part of a minority group, compared with 13 percent of repeat buyers. Six percent speak a language other than English, and 12 percent were not born in the United States.

They like the ‘burbs. Even though 22 percent purchase in an urban area, the suburbs continue to be the most popular locale, with 52 percent buying there. The third most popular spot is a small town.

They take their time. First-time buyers take an average of 12 weeks to find their home, compared with 10 weeks for repeat buyers.

They’re not afraid of foreclosures. Eleven percent of first-timers bought a home in foreclosure, and 56 percent considered it. Only 9 percent of repeat buyers bought a foreclosure, and just 41 percent considered it.

Tuesday, January 25, 2011

Mortgage Loan Approval…What’s Involved?

Everyone has heard that mortgage financing is more difficult to obtain these days. What people may not be aware of, however, is the “why” behind the time it takes to get a loan approved and closed in the mortgage industry today.

First, you should talk with your Mortgage Consultant/Loan Officer (MC/LO) to handle the prequalification for your loan AND complete the formal loan application. Remember, prequalification and full loan applications are two different things.

Make sure to have with you all your required documentation of income, employment and assets. In some cases you will also need to provide information on credit such as explanations for any late payments, inquiries, etc.

Your MC/LO then needs to prepare your file to submit to their Processing Center. In most cases, this will take a few days, especially if they are waiting for you to get back to them with additional paperwork and documents.

Typically, if you fill out all your application paperwork, your loan is submitted within 3-5 days. There are 20 business days in the average month which means that you have left the processing and underwriting center on average 15 business days (two weeks) to:

• Review initial package

• Order the appraisal

• Underwrite the loan

• Review the underwriting conditions

• Review the appraisal

• Order and receive back any third party verifications, such as employment, rent etc.

• Review and prepare the closing package

As you can see this is a lot of information to have reviewed in two weeks and remember that, most likely, there are other loan applications like yours in process.

Recently JD Power and Associates put together a study which was quoted in Origination News:

Data shows the average time from application to approval has increased to 27.5 days in 2010 from 20 days in 2009.

And this is much worse than when compared with 2008, when the application to approval turnaround was 10.7 days.

So when you are looking to purchase or refinance, keep in mind that a more realistic time frame from your application date to your close date is 30 business days…not calendar days.


Monday, January 24, 2011

7 Trends in the Mortgage Market for 2011

By: Nicole Hale
Aapex Financial Solutions
http://www.aapexfinancial.net/
http://www.aapexfinancial.blogspot.com/

Speculations have been made from some knowledgeable mortgage industry professionals regarding the market for 2011. Among these individuals included Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors and Holden Lewis, award winning mortgage reporter for Bankrate.com. The Mortgage Bankers Associations also shared their predictions for the upcoming year in the following list:

1. Mortgage rates will slowly rise throughout 2011

Even though rates are historically low, they have been slightly increasing and are predicted to hang around the 5 percent area in 2011 and then rise to about 6 percent in 2012.

2. Overall demand for mortgage loans will decrease

Total originations will decline to less than $1 trillion due to the lack of consumer confidence and slow economic growth.

3. Refinances will drop

In 2010, 80 percent of all mortgages were refinances. This is expected to drop to 40 percent in 2011 and even further to 26 percent in 2012.

4. Home purchases will gain market share

Stabilizing prices and modest increases in home sales will help purchases grow in 2011.

5. Jumbo loans will rise

In 2009 and early 2010, rates for jumbo loans were much higher than conforming. In the last quarter of 2010, the rates for jumbo loans have decreased and are predicted to continue doing so which will allow the higher-end housing market to flourish.

6. Cash purchases will escalate

A fourth of all purchases in the last quarter of 2010 were from all cash purchases and this is expected to continue into 2011.

7. The mortgage loan process will continue to be a complex one

The new levels of documentations and verifications that are needed to close a loan have intensified which makes the loan process proceed at a slow rate. The complexity of second mortgages and home equity lines of credit also make it more difficult for lenders to close.

Friday, January 21, 2011

Summary & Questions

So how many tens of thousands more factories do we need to lose before we do something about it?

How many millions more Americans are going to become unemployed before we all admit that we have a very, very serious problem on our hands?

How many more trillions of dollars are going to leave the country before we realize that we are losing wealth at a pace that is killing our economy?

The deindustrialization of America is a national crisis. It needs to be treated like one.

This gives us a baseline to start talking about 2011 and beyond.

Thursday, January 20, 2011

Deindustrialization of the United States – Facts continued:

Unknown source:

#16 Printed circuit boards are used in tens of thousands of different products. Asia now produces 84 percent of them worldwide.

#17 The United States spends approximately $3.90 on Chinese goods for every $1 that the Chinese spend on goods from the United States.

#18 One prominent economist is projecting that the Chinese economy will be three times larger than the U.S. economy by the year 2040.

#19 The U.S. Census Bureau says that 43.6 million Americans are now living in "poverty" and according to them that is the highest number of poor Americans in the 51 years that records have been kept.

Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Deindustrialization of the United States – Facts continued:

Unknown source:

#11 As of the end of 2009, less than 12 million Americans worked in manufacturing. The last time less than 12 million Americans were employed in manufacturing was in 1941.

#12 In the United States today, consumer spending accounts for 70% of GDP. Of this 70%, over half is spent on services.

#13 The United States has lost a whopping 32 percent of its manufacturing jobs since the year 2000.

#14 In 2001, the United States ranked fourth in the world in per capita broadband Internet use. Today it ranks 15th.

#15 Manufacturing employment in the U.S. computer industry is actually lower in 2010 than it was in 1975.

Tuesday, January 18, 2011

Deindustrialization of the United States – Facts continued:

Unknown source:

#6 As of the end of July, the U.S. trade deficit with China had risen 18% compared to the same time period a year ago.

#7 The United States has lost a total of about 5.5 million manufacturing jobs since October 2000.

#8 According to Tax Notes, between 1999 and 2008 employment at the foreign affiliates of U.S. parent companies increased an astounding 30% to 101 million. During that exact same time period, U.S. employment at American multinational corporations declined 8 percent to 21.1 million.

#9 In 1959, manufacturing represented 28 percent of U.S. economic output. In 2008, it represented 11.5%.

#10 Ford Motor Company recently announced the closure of a factory that produces the Ford Ranger in St. Paul, Minnesota. Approximately 750 good paying middle class jobs are going to be lost because making Ford Rangers in Minnesota does not fit in with Ford's new "global" manufacturing strategy.

Monday, January 17, 2011

Deindustrialization of the United States

Unknown source:

The deindustrialization of the United States should be a top concern for every man, woman and child in the country. But sadly, most Americans do not have any idea what is going on around them.

Perhaps what they will read below will shock them badly enough to awaken them from their slumber.

I will post these 19 facts about the deindustrialization of America over several days to ensure the significance of each fact is not lost in the total discussion:

#1 The United States has lost approximately 42,400 factories since 2001. About 75 percent of those factories employed over 500 people when they were still in operation.

#2 Dell Inc., one of America's largest manufacturers of computers, has announced plans to dramatically expand its operations in China with an investment of over $100 billion over the next decade.

#3 Dell has announced that it will be closing its last large U.S. manufacturing facility in Winston-Salem , North Carolina in November. Approximately 900 jobs will be lost.

#4 In 2008, 1.2 billion cell phones were sold worldwide. So how many of them were manufactured inside the United States? Zero.

#5 According to a new study conducted by the Economic Policy Institute, if the U.S. trade deficit with China continues to increase at its current rate, the U.S. economy will lose over half a million jobs this year alone.

Friday, January 14, 2011

Why Homeownership Matters To Communities

By Tony Jarrett , Allen Tate Realtors®

Whether you prefer tree-lined streets of single-family homes, long drives with pastures right up to the front door or concrete sidewalks fronting majestic walk-ups, your home is always part of a larger community.
In this second part of our series on why homeownership matters, we explore the benefits that homeownership has on a community. According to the 2010 National Association of Realtors survey, there are plenty of benefits to explore:


• People who own homes vote more, and contribute more to their neighborhoods.

• Homeowners do not move as frequently as renters, providing more neighborhood stability. In turn, this stability helps reduce crime and supports neighborhood upkeep. `

• Children of home owners do better in school, stay in school longer, are more likely to participate in organized activities and spend less time in front of the television.

When it comes to real estate, it is always location, location, location. But when it comes to buying and settling into a home, it is always community, community, community. That’s why at Allen Tate we not only take pride in helping people find just the right home in the right community, but also as a company we focus on community giving through United Way, arts and cultural drives and public schools.

Thursday, January 13, 2011

Small Business Entrepreneurs

8. QUALITY = TIME = MONEY
Your reputation is for you to lose and to build on. We generally get one chance and if what we are offering suffers in quality, you have lost time and money. Also, you may not regain your reputation.

9. Companies over the past several years have had their pick of talent - too many people after too few jobs.
The winners have been problem solvers promoting instantaneous success. Understand the mentality of your client/customer. Deliver solutions not problems.

10. Put profitability first, rewards second. In small businesses, profitability must come first. Think cash flow.

11. Have strong Beliefs – know where you are going – have goals

12. Be an Optimist – be a positive role model - appreciate life

13. Relentless Preparation – answer the unanticipated, sense of calm with practice

14. Invest in Others – be a mentor - assist others without expecting anything in return.

15. Live in a State of Gratitude – 86,400 seconds in a day – how will you use this time? “It's not renewable”

16. Act rather than react – take action

17. Reinvent – do what you do and always have done – differently

The self employed and small businesses without employees are true entrepreneurs. They have broad shoulders and the federal government does not include US in national statistics nor do we really care. And, we certainly don’t seek 99 weeks of unemployment benefits. However, our actions have a significant impact on our economy. We don’t wait for the economy to get better; we start with ourselves to make changes – constantly to get better.

“A brighter future always changing but always brighter”

Wednesday, January 12, 2011

Are you an Entrepreneur?

It is estimated that there are 42,000,000 self employed and small business owners with no employees in the United States.

In the second part of this weekly post, you should consider the following aspects of entrepreneurship:

5. Find your industry partners to assist you with your business success. This may include a banker, attorney, accountant, and accountability mentor. It there are licenses, permits, and approvals to launch your business, make sure you are following local, state and federal laws.

People will gravitate to an expert or superior quality or outstanding service. Integrity will last forever.

6. Your business plan should be supplemented with a solid but flexible marketing plan. 2011 will be a changing marketplace simply because the economy will gain positive momentum on an irregular basis and your marketing approach should change on a regular basis.

It is clear the internet and various websites will be the most viable way to connect with clientele in the future. Everyone will be concentrating on how to ride the wave of positive change – perhaps we should show how it can be accomplished.

My suggestion is for you to join LinkedIn for professional networking opportunities. Please view my LinkedIn profile. www.LinkedIn.com/in/djohnsonpe

7. My brother has always said – “you are in business when you have your first client”. Your product or service must be an over whelming value. Prepare relentlessly in finding and making your first client a repeat paying customer!

Tuesday, January 11, 2011

The Entrepreneur Game Plan

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia - An entrepreneur is a person who has possession of a new enterprise, venture or idea and is accountable for the inherent risks and the outcome.

The entrepreneur is the self employed or a small business with no employees in most cases. As an example, a Realtor® is a small business without employees and certainly is an entrepreneur. The entrepreneur that grows a company to astounding levels is a great read but not the typical. In most cases the entrepreneur is on an island without financial backing and without the umbrella coverage of government. But they have a marketable service, talent, or idea.

2011 will be the year of the entrepreneur and this week, I will post general ideas to assist you as your entrepreneurial spirit continues to flourish.

1. Are you really an entrepreneur that can stand alone or are you someone that must rely on someone else to generate a salary for you? This basic question will help you understand your comfort zone. Are you ready to take a risk to generate a living for yourself and your family?

2. Where do you get financial help as you implement your business plan and before generating an income? As an example, a new real estate agent will not generate viable leads, negotiate a deal and achieve their first closing within their first six months. However, the real estate agent will spend money to generate business, stay in business, and maintain their license.

Do you have the personal financial resources to sustain your standard of living during the launch of your business and until an income stream is achieve?
Do you think a Small Business Administration loan or bank loan are available to entrepreneurs?

3. If you believe you are suited in an entrepreneur and small business role and if you have the financial resources available to sustain a living until your business is launched and marketed, the entrepreneur career has many advantageous and only one person can modify the results – you.

Remember, there is no unemployment insurance, you have to pay your own health insurance and you are not a government statistic. You are on your own except you have millions of entrepreneurs to learn from.

4. Now that you are ready --- prepare your business plan. My suggestion is to complete 3-business plans. The first should concentrate on the first six months of business and the second plan outlines the next 6-month period. The last business plan will be a long term outline of your goals and objectives.

Monday, January 10, 2011

2011 Statistics to Remember

As the economy improves, we should remember a benchmark of statistics for future reference:

• 9.8% Unemployment or 8,600,000 unemployed Americans
• 50% of the unemployed are on extended benefits up to 99 weeks
• Gallop estimates that over 30,000,000 Americans are under employed
• 25% of the unemployed were in construction
• 43,000,000 people on food stamps
• 42,000,000 self employed and small businesses with no employees

Based on the census, about 1/3 of the US population are unemployed, under employed, on food stamps and self-employed. Not sure what to do with this statistic.

The self-employed and small businesses with no employees have the best chance to continue their trade or service and make a living as the economy improves. The self employed and small businesses with no employees are not part of the statistical data base nor were they considered in the health care debate.

This week’s blog posts are devoted to the entrepreneur. The true entrepreneur is the self employed or small business with no employees that must rely on their imagination, determination, and will to succeed.

I will suggest tasks for the self employed to employ as they succeed in 2011.

Friday, January 7, 2011

2011 Housing Goals

Buyers:

In real estate, we always strive to buy the largest home that we could afford.
We would always strive to buy the least expensive home on the block.

For 2011, I am suggesting that buyers buy location and what only is necessary.
Buyers need to think COST rather than PRICE.
My 1981 recession motto for 2011: “Nice but Not Necessary”

Sellers:

Sellers have gone through various levels of price adjustments. 2011 will remain a price sensitive market.

Competitive Price?
Compelling Price?
Overwhelming Price? If a seller wants to sell, the home must be an incredible VALUE for the PRICE.

Thursday, January 6, 2011

Housing Statistics

The National Association of Realtors® provided the following statistics. There is a trend and a definite relationship to the supply and demand in housing.

National Statistics

                    Existing Home Sales                                            Average Sales Price

2007            5,652,000                                                          $266,000

2008            4,913,000                                                          $242,700

2009            5,440,000                                                          $218,700

Seasonally Adjusted

Jan ‘10         5,050,000                                                          $212,200

April ‘10      5,790,000                                                          $217,300

July ‘10        3,840,000                                                          $231,700

Nov. ‘10      4,680,000                                                          $218,800

Wednesday, January 5, 2011

Annual Credit Report Review

Information provided by Chris Cope, Allen Tate Company

This year, you should start each New Year off by reviewing your own credit report.

The mortgage industry sees day to day the impact that a person’s credit can have on their ability to purchase or refinance a home. While most people may know what they need to qualify for a mortgage, many don’t understand that even small positive changes to their credit score can result in a better rate.

Reviewing your credit report may also reveal errors that, thankfully, you can easily correct.

What if you didn’t know those errors were there? You don’t want to be caught by surprise, especially if you are making an application for credit. After you review your report, you will see that the last pages give you the contact numbers for all your creditors. You can call them to dispute inaccurate information.

Since many industries also use your credit report information, including insurance, utilities and employers, it is in your best interest to know what is on this report and that it is completely accurate.

The only way to do this for free is to go to the Annual Credit Report Government site. It allows you to get your credit report online or if you prefer to get it sent to you, here are the directions for requesting it by phone or mail (from the annual credit report site).

To Request your Credit Report by Phone:
• Call 1-877-322-8228
• You will go through a simple verification process over the phone.
Your reports will be mailed to you within 15 days. Allow 2-3 weeks for delivery.

To Request your Credit Report by Mail:
• Download the request form (You need an Adobe viewer to view the requested form. Download the free Adobe viewer) Print and complete the form

Mail the completed form to:
Annual Credit Report Request Service
P.O. Box 105281
Atlanta, GA 30348-5281
Your reports will be mailed to you within 15 days. Allow 2-3 weeks for delivery.

Tuesday, January 4, 2011

Homeownership

So why does homeownership matter so much to people?

Studies show that homeownership has a significant and very positive impact on:
  • Net worth
  • Educational achievement
  • Civic participation
  • Health
  • Overall quality of life 
In fact, according to recent stats released by the National Association of Realtors, here are some reasons why homeownership matters to people:
  • Home owners are happier and healthier and enjoy a greater feeling of control of their lives.
  • Owning a home is one of the best ways to build long-term wealth. Historically, a home owner’s net worth has ranged from 31 to 46 times that of a renter.
  • Home owners are free to decorate, renovate and modify their homes as they wish.
  • Most home owners enjoy stable housing costs – a fixed-rate mortgage payment might not change for 15 to 30 years while rent typically increases 3% a year
  • Home owners can typically deduct mortgage interest and property taxes on their federal individual income tax return.

 Homeownership really does matter to people!

 

Monday, January 3, 2011

Housing Status

I have always expressed that as the housing market gains strength and consistency the economy will follow suit. The linkage between jobs and housing stabilization is clear.

Those areas which have solid population growth and job creation will experience housing price increases. The first indicator would be new housing starts.

Most states are experiencing a positive change from the year over year comparison
from Oct ’09 and Oct ’10.

There are areas which continue to experience a slow down in new housing starts:

Kansas -26%
Nebraska -3%
South Dakota -10%
DC -52%
South Carolina -6%
West Virginia -12%
Alabama -11%
Mississippi -33%
Louisiana -11%
Oklahoma -6%
Arizona -8%
Idaho -15%
New Mexico -2%
Nevada -5%
Utah -16%
Oregon -6%

States with significant gains year over year percent change (20% to 30%)

Massachusetts +27%
New Hampshire +22%
Vermont +29%
Michigan +29%
Maryland +21%
Tennessee +21%
Colorado +23%
Montana +24%
California +21%
Washington +20%

It is not difficult to show positive trends when housing starts has been historically low for the past several years. The fact that California has had a positive increase in housing starts signals a significant trend especially when LA, Riverside, San Diego and San Fran represent 60% of the total new housing starts.

However, is there going to be a double dip recession in the housing industry?