Statistics, Politics and Reality

As per the Bureau of Labor Statistics: (in thousands)

                                                Dec 2009                          Dec 2010                               Nov 2011

Civilian Labor Force                154,142                            153,889                                  153,683

Employed                                139,877                            139,064                                  140,070

Unemployment Rate                   9.3%                                9.8%                                       8.6%

Unemployed                             14,265                             14,825                                     12,613

Not in Labor Force                  81,659                              83,941                                    86,757

I am not a statistician but the reality from Dec 2009 to Nov 2011 seems to me:

1. the total civilian labor force is about the same
2. the number of employed people is about the same
3. the total number of the unemployed has decreased and thus the unemployment rate looks great or at least the trend is in the right direction,
4. the total number NOT in the labor force has increased by about 5,000,000 people. This is over a 6% increase over the past two years.

You have to be the judge on the trend of the economy.

Is the “spin” that the unemployment rate is trending down and that is a good sign the economy is improving?

OR

Is the ‘spin” that the number of people leaving the workforce is trending up because there is no work?