Home Prices Beyond 2013

Existing home prices will continue to increase due to the pent up demand and the lack of supply. The overriding factor stopping people from buying and families from selling is fear.

Just because the election is over, inflation, lack of work, the economy etc., etc., etc., still exists.

Example:

A home priced at $150,000 at 3.25% = a monthly payment of $653

(Note: an interest rate common several months ago)

(Note: the above example is for a 3 BR / 2.5 Bath home with a 2-car garage)

(Note: how much is your monthly rent for what size apartment?)

 

Add a 10% price increase in 2013 but keep the interest rate low

$165,000 at 3.25% = a monthly payment of $718

There is no reason for home buyers to get off the fence especially with the Fed indicating that interest rates will stay low forever! Oh, not forever. Just until the unemployment rate is lowered. When do you think that will happen and what do you think will happen next?

The Fed will increase the interest rates easing off their buying spree. Mortgage interest rates are already around 4.25% or higher but still historically “low”.

 

 

Back to our Example:
 

A home priced at $150,000 at 3.25% = a monthly payment of $653

 

Add a 10% price increase in 2013; keep the interest rate “low” but at 4.25%

 

$165,000 at 4.25% = a monthly payment of $812

 

Add a 10% price increase in 2013; keep the interest rate “low” but at 5.25%

 

$165,000 at 5.25% = a monthly payment of $911

 

By doing nothing but sitting there on the fence, watch the monthly cost increase before your eyes!!

Yes home prices are on the rise. Interest rates will go up. Rents will continue to increase. If you are a buyer, what are you waiting for?

 

Another way to look at the buying equation:

 

If you earn $54,000 with normal credit issues:

 

You can afford to buy:

 

$145,000 home at 3.25%

 

or

 

$115,000 home at 5.25%.

 

If you are a buyer, why are you waiting? If not now….WHEN?

 

If you know someone that is interested in buying a home, please forward this post to them.

Regina Brett's 45 life lessons and 5 to grow on

Published: Thursday, September 20, 2007, 2:03 PM Updated: Wednesday, October 28, 2009, 9:49 AM

By Regina Brett, The Plain DealerThe Plain Dealer
Follow

Originally published in The Plain Dealer on Sunday, May 28, 2006

To celebrate growing older, I once wrote the 45 lessons life taught me.
It is the most-requested column I've ever written. My odometer rolls over to 50 this week, so here's an update:

1. Life isn't fair, but it's still good.
2. When in doubt, just take the next small step.
3. Life is too short to waste time hating anyone.
4. Don't take yourself so seriously. No one else does.
5. Pay off your credit cards every month.
6. You don't have to win every argument. Agree to disagree.
7. Cry with someone. It's more healing than crying alone.
8. It's OK to get angry with God. He can take it.
9. Save for retirement starting with your first paycheck.
10. When it comes to chocolate, resistance is futile.
11. Make peace with your past so it won't screw up the present.
12. It's OK to let your children see you cry.
13. Don't compare your life to others'. You have no idea what their journey is all about.
14. If a relationship has to be a secret, you shouldn't be in it.
15. Everything can change in the blink of an eye. But don't worry; God never blinks.
16. Life is too short for long pity parties. Get busy living, or get busy dying.
17. You can get through anything if you stay put in today.
18. A writer writes. If you want to be a writer, write.
19. It's never too late to have a happy childhood. But the second one is up to you and no one else.
20. When it comes to going after what you love in life, don't take no for an answer.
21. Burn the candles, use the nice sheets, wear the fancy lingerie. Don't save it for a special occasion. Today is special.
22. Overprepare, then go with the flow.
23. Be eccentric now. Don't wait for old age to wear purple.
24. The most important sex organ is the brain.
25. No one is in charge of your happiness except you.
26. Frame every so-called disaster with these words: "In five years, will this matter?"
27. Always choose life.
28. Forgive everyone everything.
29. What other people think of you is none of your business.
30. Time heals almost everything. Give time time.
31. However good or bad a situation is, it will change.
32. Your job won't take care of you when you are sick. Your friends will. Stay in touch.
33. Believe in miracles.
34. God loves you because of who God is, not because of anything you did or didn't do.
35. Whatever doesn't kill you really does make you stronger.
36. Growing old beats the alternative - dying young.
37. Your children get only one childhood. Make it memorable.
38. Read the Psalms. They cover every human emotion.
39. Get outside every day. Miracles are waiting everywhere.
40. If we all threw our problems in a pile and saw everyone else's, we'd grab ours back.
41. Don't audit life. Show up and make the most of it now.
42. Get rid of anything that isn't useful, beautiful or joyful.
43. All that truly matters in the end is that you loved.
44. Envy is a waste of time. You already have all you need.
45. The best is yet to come.
46. No matter how you feel, get up, dress up and show up.
47. Take a deep breath. It calms the mind.
48. If you don't ask, you don't get.
49. Yield.
50. Life isn't tied with a bow, but it's still a gift.

To reach this Plain Dealer columnist:
rbrett@plaind.com, 216-999-6328

Median and Average Price of Homes – Decade by Decade Review

 

                                                                        Decade of Housing Prices

Source: www.census.gov

                        Median             Average            Appreciation or Depreciation

                                                                        Median Price of Homes

 

1970                 $23,400             $26,600

                                                                         Appreciation of  $145,600

 
1980                 $169,000           $207,000

                                                                        Depreciation of $46,100

1990                 $122,900           $149,800

                                                                         Appreciation of  $46,100

2000                 $169,000           $207,000

2001                 $175,200           $213,200

2002                 $187,600           $228,700

2003                 $195,000           $246,300

2004                 $221,000           $274,500

2005                 $240,900           $297,000

2006                 $246,500           $305,900

2007                 $247,900           $313,600

2008                 $232,100           $292,600

2009                 $216,700           $270,900

                                                                         Appreciation of  $52,800 (2000 – 2010)

2010                 $221,800           $272,900

WOW ……….. What happened during the ‘70’s to realize such a large appreciation in the median price of homes?

 

From 1970 to 2010, the median price of homes in the US has increased $198,400 - an 848% increase.

I am not at suggesting that we need to live in our homes for 40+ years to realize a gain. But we do need to stop looking at buying a home as a pure investment – however it is an investment because:

1. It is a hedge against inflation

2. It is an investment in your community

3. It is the foundation for your family

4. It is like the weather, wait and it will change

5. It teaches us to slow down and mobility is not the answer anymore

The national media continues to discuss the lost equity in our homes and compare the pricing to the height of the bubble. The length of time we have stayed in our homes is getting back to 7-years. This has been the standard for decades – except during the housing bubble when the time was reduced to 4-years.

In 2003 median price = $195,000 

 

In 2010 median price = $221,800 -- a 13.7% gain. So what is the problem?

Let’s compare the price changes for everyday items over the past 4 decades:

 

                                        1970                           2010                           2012

Interest Rates                5.03%                           4.69%                           3.66%

For historical context during previous recessions, the following are annual averages

1974                   9.19%

1981                 16.63%

1989                 10.32%

2000                   8.05%

 

Gallon of Gas               $0.36                            $2.79                            $3.39   
 

Movie Ticket                 $1.55                            $7.50                            $8.20
 

Milk                              $1.15                            $2.79                            $3.89   
            

Inflation*                       5.9%**                          1.10%                           2.60%
 

* government redefined how inflation is calculated. Food & energy was taken out of the equation in 2007

**inflation went to 13.5% in 1980!
 

Income                         $7,494                          $47,425             $49,000 estimated
 

Everything we do is all about timing.
 

However, the appreciation of housing prices over the decades is a good thing! The key is to buy what you can afford and stay for as long it is practical for your family. The longer you stay in your home your equity will increase by paying down the mortgage and by prices will go up --- over time.

Inflation is down considerably………………or is it?

Income is keeping up with inflation ………..how long will that last?
 

With a median salary of $49,000 per year and an interest rate of 3.66%, what price of home can you afford?
 

                                                                   =     $170,000
 

Median Price of a home                                   $221,800
 

OK……………..after all of the above, what does it mean to you, your family and friends?

If you know of someone that may be in the market to buy a home, NOW is the best time. I am not sure we will ever see this combination opportunity of low interest rates and low but rising home prices.

 

If you can afford the monthly cost of a mortgage, real estate taxes, home ownership, you should consider buying rather than renting.

The other way to look at the above data is the economic environment in which we are currently working in. Low inflation to low interest rates relationship but the housing market is still upside down. I am not an economist but the economic framework is completely different than any other time over the past 40-years.

By the way, the median price of a home in July 2013 is $257,200. I think the projected rate of appreciation going forward is too low for housing!

My next blog post will be the assessment of land values over the past 40-years.  

 

 

 

 

 

This equation doesn’t add up!

Salary - more taxes + higher consumer debt  – inflation  -  less available income  for buyers  +  Increased home prices  +  higher interest rates  –  lack of supply  =  a problem for homebuyers

 

The market used to be well defined. I am not so sure anymore. I do know that your own personal perspective will define how you will proceed. We seemed to have skipped a balanced market and shifted to a seller’s market overnight.

The Fed says inflation is under control?  Is it? I think prices are up across the board for all products.

Interest rates are rising.

Is that a good thing or a bad thing?

 

 Home prices are skyrocketing.

Is that a good thing or a bad thing?

 

Is the housing market STILL upside down?

In my opinion, the housing market remains upside down and is currently working on adrenaline.

This will wear off soon due to the inability to meet the demand and as we move into the winter months, everything will slow down.  

Housing has always been a reactive industry with wide reaching consequences for every American.  Maybe the equation above is wrong. Maybe the answer is a balanced market for sellers and buyers. However, the total number of transactions will be a new norm.

If that is the case in 2014, WHERE will our children live?

 

 

 

Aging Population & Real Estate

Many boomers will retire “in-pace” while others will retire closer to family. The sunbelt migration of older retirees has seen a reversal over the past ten years. With the cost of health care for the elderly skyrocketing, new decisions on where to live, shop, work and play will be an important decision factor for finding a home but none are as important as family.

Assisted living facilities have waiting lists. The monthly costs are escalating every year. A simple one room apartment in an assisted living facility costs between $4,000 and $8,000 PER MONTH!

The large “active adult” community project will not be the panacea but a stepping stone in down-sizing. These communities will only be an acceptable choice if it is located close to a caring son or daughter.

During the 2000’s, families moved every four years. I believe the search for employment and the housing crisis will lengthen this period. Also, the children of baby boomers will not be moving as much. They are more locked into their home and employment and will not be taking risks. This generation is experiencing their first difficult recession and their outlook on the future will change. Add a retiring or elderly parent to the equation and their real estate goals change. Then add children to the equation and all of a sudden the length of stay in a home will be longer and longer. In the ‘80’s the average time for a family to relocate was every 7-years.

Again accepting a home as a place for family, faith and freedom, we will be less likely to move and this alone with change the dynamics of the housing industry. A home has never been about earning a profit on a financial investment.

Baby boomers will have a dramatic impact on the real estate industry. By retiring in place, new housing starts will be adjusted downward establishing a new norm. Paying of the mortgage will become common and the home value passed along to their heirs.

The ramifications would be that buyers will be faced with rising prices, rising interest rates and diminishing number of homes to choose from. In my opinion, a seller’s market has returned and will be with us for years to come.

The aging population will affect new home construction starts and thus the supply will be readjusted to a new norm. Family formations are down and generational houses may be the new trend – for years to come. New home designs will target the aging population by at least keeping the MBR on the main floor, minimum 3-BR’s for family visits and a 2-car garage. However, plenty of storage will be the key amenity in a home for the boomers.

 

The baby boomers will have a significant impact on the real estate industry.....if we listen!

Home Sales UP; Inventory DOWN; What will Happen Next?

If the Fed thinks inflation is under control (which they don't shop where we shop) and the economy is improving, they will taper off their credit card buying and interest rates will rise and the housing recovery will slow down. Can the Fed pull off a gradual adjustment to ease the housing market into a sustainable growth pattern? I don't think so because of the lack of supply and the pent-up demand.
Your opinions are welcome!

Housing Prices "Today vs Bubble"

So ....... why do you think the home prices in Dallas remained steady during the bubble and now only a moderate increase compared to other cities. I don't know for sure but my initial thought is LAND -- plenty of it, regulatory common sense and builders not escalating prices during the bubble just because they could. Also probably staying away from mortgage programs that damaged other markets. Could be a pro-business environment or lower unemployment rate than the national rate over the past decade. Not sure but I am hanging my hat on LAND! Plenty of it and at a reasonable price. How would you like to live in Las Vegas where homes lost 1/2 their value!

I find it interesting to note that the bubble was essentially over a 3-year period. How long will it take to get back the value in most states ----- another 3-years? Mortgage games and the lack of work compounded the decline of housing prices in most states but not Texas.